Unlucky or Terrible Judge of a new Product?

Sometimes a new product comes to market and the market responds with a resounding NO!  Of course there are some faithful adopters, people still clinging to their HD DVD collection while shunning Blu-Ray. But are these the same people who also would have been championing Betamax years after VHS had clearly won the war?

A study in the Journal of Marketing Research showed that in the retail business, this is true.  These so called “harbingers of failure” are likely to pursue failed product after failed product.  While one would assume a customer buying a product multiple times would lead to success, the research shows a harbinger’s repeated purchases drop the product's rate of success by 56%.

These harbingers were able to even have a cross-category response.  A person likely to buy a failed soft drink such as Diet Crystal Pepsi would also buy an about to fail toothpaste and laundry detergent as well.  Finding a niche market is usually a stepping stone to mainstream commercial success, but this study shows that this definitely not risk-averse group of consumers is one to not only not target but actively stay away from.

These sort of studies are able to take fascinating looks into why certain products fail and others succeed.  These studies may help explain why some non-problematic products such as HD DVD and Betamax (technology and performance were not the issue) fail.  A product may be great (taste great, work fantastically, do everything advertised, etc.) but if no one outside of the harbinger group is willing to give it a try, it is doomed to failure.  I am excited to see what other studies in this era of Big Data have to offer.  These sort of inquiries may finally give us understanding and the ability to see the giant icebergs under the ocean instead of just looking around and guessing which of the tiny icebergs poking out of the water will survive. 

But back to this story, after reading this in this MIT Technology Review, I also thought about how a person could use this in their day-to-day life.  Maybe from now on my very enthused friend who just found the greatest new technology, food or way to clean your apartment, I will think of their track record.  The product may sound great, but I know my friends with HD DVD collections and I will happily sip my very non-clear, non-new Coke happily.