Drake's Equation

Drake's equation, one of the great mysteries is still unknown.  Sir Francis Drake, you assume?  Nope, we're not looking for treasure.  Am I starting from the bottom and crediting rapper Drake?  Of course not, watch him dance.  Oh, so it is Nathan Drake's ability to make Playstation the greatest gaming system over the XBox in Uncharted?  Again, nice guess.  I am talking about the real Drake as in Dr. Frank Drake’s equation to find the number of intelligent extraterrestrial beings in the MIlky Way.

The equation seems simple (although very complicated) enough.  To be fair, Sir Francis would have been marooned even for the thought and the concept of starting from the left and not the bottom still confuses the rapper.  The video game character may have thought of it, but then this article would be more about Skynet than anything else.  

Here's the equation:

While this is still very much a thought exercise, most of these variables are either complete guesses (the final four) or at best a rough approximation (the first two).  The fact that Frank Drake built this theoretical equation over 50 years ago is impressive.  Since then our estimations have wildly fluctuated from theory to theory (some believe fi is 1 because of earth while others believe fi is  next to 0 because we have yet to find another life form).  But the fact we can move to closer and closer to real answers each year is impressive.  Science is close to agreement on R* of being around 7.  Fp is slowly being analyzed and approximated by Kepler (one recent report put it near 22%).  The problem is fl, fi, fc, and Lc/Ls will all remain completely unknown until we actually find life somewhere else in the galaxy.  Even then it will take much more than 2 data points to become close to an answer.

I for one will love every step of the way.  I truly believe intelligent life exists elsewhere in the galaxy, it seems almost impossible it doesn’t.  This definitely does not mean I think we have been ever visited but aliens (I find that very, very hard to believe).  But I am excited for the worldwide debate and hopefully not mass hysteria that will be had when we find a planet with a polluted atmosphere (only possibly man or alien made), since only intelligent life is good at polluting a planet.  Then we will truly have found other life.